On the Interaction Between Fear and Hatred

This paper models conflictual interaction between a European state and a domestic dissident immigrant minority group, Muslims say, some of whom may resort to acts of terrorism. Here, identity is crucial and provides the micro-foundations of dissident behaviour by solving the collective action problem; however, complex multiple identities are possible. Militancy or hatred of the West arises both because of the economic and social disadvantage experienced by Muslims or horizontal inequalities, as well as historical grievances and contemporary foreign policy actions that discriminate against the Muslim world. The fear of visible Muslim minorities among the European host population may be a product of strident propaganda emanating from certain segments of Western society. The innovation of the paper lies in modelling the interaction between fear and hatred. Excessive deterrence against ‘dangerous’ minority groups may backfire, compared to more accommodative policies. Space needs to be created so that Muslim migrants are able to merge their personal identities within their adopted European homelands. Also, the economic disadvantage experienced by Muslims needs redressin

Indicators of Potential Conflict.

Summary: This paper focuses on the main factors that contribute to the dangers of violent internal conflict erupting, or re-igniting after a peace has been concluded. The conflict literature has identified greed and grievance as the principle causes of conflict. But for either of them to take the form of large-scale violence there must be other factors at work, specifically a weakening of the ʻsocial contractʼ. Such a viable social contract can be sufficient to restrain opportunistic behaviour such as theft of resource rents and violent expression of grievance. The social contract, therefore, refers to the mechanisms and institutions of peaceful conflict resolution. Three main risk factors are considered in this briefing: The breakdown of redistributive mechanisms, democratic transitions and lack of economic progress

On the Salience of Identity in Civilizational and Sectarian Conflict

Abstract This paper models two forms of low intensity conflict based on identity: civilizational conflict between Muslim migrants and the ‘West’ in European countries, and sectarian violence between religious groups in certain developing countries. Both historical grievances and current material inequalities can motivate individuals to join or refrain from violence in aid of a group cause. With civilizational conflict, hatred of the West arises because of economic disadvantage among Muslims, historical grievances and contemporary foreign policy deemed to be against Muslims. Fear of Muslim minorities among the European population may result from strident propaganda. Without tackling inequalities of opportunity, policies of assimilating migrants are doomed to failure. Sectarian conflict in developing countries like India is driven both by prospect of loot and hatred of the other. Localized conditions are salient in this regard. Poverty and inequality reduction and positive local social capital are key to addressing this type of conflict. Historical factors that shape the myths placing certain minorities adversely within society also need addressing

New Directions in Conflict Research

Even an idealist philosopher like Immanuel Kant (1795) considered war to be the natural state of man. In that respect, he shared the perspective of the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes (1651). According to Hobbes, the state of nature was characterised by anarchy akin to perpetual war ; each man taking what he could with no basis for right or wrong. Life was: “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short”. Consequently, it was in the interest of individuals to surrender their individual freedom of action to an absolute ruler in return for personal security and rule based interactions in society. Kant was concerned more with preventing war between nations. That would require the simultaneous adoption of a republican constitution by all nations, which inter alia would check the war-like tendencies of both monarchs and the citizenry; the cosmopolitanism that would emerge among the comity of nations would preclude war, implying a confederation amongst such nation states (foedus pacificum). Kant’s notion of cosmopolitanism is also applicable within nation states. Both thinkers were concerned with mechanisms that would engender peace. In other words, peace has to be achieved through deliberate design; this is what Galtung (1964) described as the negative peace (the absence of war)

Threat Perceptions in Europe: Domestic Terrorism and International Crime.

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on two areas of security concern for the European Union: terrorism and international crime. I present a model of game-theoretic interaction between a European state and a domestic dissident group, who, on occasion, may resort to acts of terrorism. Here, identity is crucial to the putative terrorist, providing the microfoundations of dissident group behaviour by solving the collective action problem. I also sketch a macromodel of drugs production in a conflict-ridden developing country, where I argue that demand-side policies of regulation may be better than policies that are aimed at eradicating supply. As far as the policy implications are concerned, first excessive deterrence against potential terrorists may backfire. Secondly, space needs to be created so that Muslim migrants are able to merge their personal identities within their adopted European homelands. Thirdly, the economic discrimination against Muslims in Europe needs to be redressed. Finally, aid to fragile drug producing states should be broad-based and poverty reducing, not just benefiting warlords

DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MODEST GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The Middle Eastern region is a major supplier of the world’s energy. It is also characterised by conflict, and is the focus of global geo-political interest both because of oil and the volatile nature of disputes in the region, which are perceived to have far reaching global security implications. Would we expect such a region to prosper? On the one hand, the answer should be affirmative on account of natural resource wealth, but on the other hand it could be negative due to the presence of conflict and the potential resource rent mismanagement. The actual record is somewhere in the middle. I argue that the region has made substantial progress in human development in spite of modest growth rates, which is related to the region’s cultural heritage with a low tolerance for poverty and inequality. Its outcome based institutional development is not unimpressive, which bodes well for long-term growth prospects. Additionally, recent oil rents have not been mismanaged. More, however, needs to be done to foster economic diversification and diminish dependence on natural resource

Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt servicing is present in the current account of the balance of payments. This captures the contemporary experience of deficit nations like the USA vis-à-vis surplus countries like China. Trade policy (VER) in the short-run affects the current account and exchange rate, leading to the accumulation of debt stocks, which have to be repaid in the long-run in the form of debt servicing flows. This leads to a major difference between the short and long-run effects of trade policy in the form of VERs, which can be expansionary and contractionary respectively for the trade policy initiating nation

War and the Fiscal Capacity of the State

__Abstract__ We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. This in contrast to the European experience from the Renaissance to the 20th century, where it is believed that war and state-building were inseparable, enhancing the fiscal capacity of the state; in turn enlarging the scope and magnitude of government expenditure. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with the possibility of violent contestation over a rent or prize, typically in the form of natural resource revenues. Our dynamic panel empirical analysis on the determinants of fiscal capacity is applied to 79 developing countries, during 1980-2010. Results indicate that war, especially in its current dominant form of civil war, retards fiscal capacity, along with imperfect democracy, political repression, the quality of governance, dependence on oil and macroeconomic mismanagement. High intensity conflict is particularly destructive of state capacity. Countries experiencing low intensity wars, other institutional factors may matter more for fiscal capacity formation compared to war. The diminution of state capacity due to war appears less pronounced after the end of the cold war

Identity and Islamic Radicalization in Western Europe

This paper argues that both socio-economic disadvantage and political factors, such as the West’s foreign policy with regard to the Muslim world, along with historical grievances, play a part in the development of Islamic radicalized collective action in Western Europe. We emphasise the role of group identity based individual behaviour in organising collective action within radicalized Muslim groups. Inasmuch as culture plays any role at all in radicalization, it is because individuals feel an imperative to act on the basis of their Muslim identity, something to which different individuals will attach varying degrees of salience, depending on how they place their Muslim identity based actions in the scheme of their multiple identities. We also emphasize the role of the opportunistic politician, from the majority European community, in fomenting hatred for Muslims, which also produces a backlash from radicalized political Islam. We present comparative evidence on socio-economic, political and cultural disadvantage faced by Muslim minorities in five West European countries: Germany, the UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands

The education bias of 'trade liberalization' and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled-unskilled wage differential. High initial endowments of human capital imply a more egalitarian society. When more equal societies open up their economies further, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of openness indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. One explanation could be that governments in developing countries invest more in higher education at the expense of primary education in order to gain immediate benefits from globalization; thus becoming prone to wage inequality after increased international trade. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster